Development and validation of risk prediction model for new-onset cardiovascular diseases among breast cancer patients: Based on regional medical data of Inner Mongolia / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To develop and validate a three-year risk prediction model for new-onset cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among female patients with breast cancer.@*METHODS@#Based on the data from Inner Mongolia Regional Healthcare Information Platform, female breast cancer patients over 18 years old who had received anti-tumor treatments were included. The candidate predictors were selected by Lasso regression after being included according to the results of the multivariate Fine & Gray model. Cox proportional hazard model, Logistic regression model, Fine & Gray model, random forest model, and XGBoost model were trained on the training set, and the model performance was evaluated on the testing set. The discrimination was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC), and the calibration was evaluated by the calibration curve.@*RESULTS@#A total of 19 325 breast cancer patients were identified, with an average age of (52.76±10.44) years. The median follow-up was 1.18 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.71] years. In the study, 7 856 patients (40.65%) developed CVD within 3 years after the diagnosis of breast cancer. The final selected variables included age at diagnosis of breast cancer, gross domestic product (GDP) of residence, tumor stage, history of hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease, type of surgery, type of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. In terms of model discrimination, when not considering survival time, the AUC of the XGBoost model was significantly higher than that of the random forest model [0.660 (95%CI: 0.644-0.675) vs. 0.608 (95%CI: 0.591-0.624), P < 0.001] and Logistic regression model [0.609 (95%CI: 0.593-0.625), P < 0.001]. The Logistic regression model and the XGBoost model showed better calibration. When considering survival time, Cox proportional hazard model and Fine & Gray model showed no significant difference for AUC [0.600 (95%CI: 0.584-0.616) vs. 0.615 (95%CI: 0.599-0.631), P=0.188], but Fine & Gray model showed better calibration.@*CONCLUSION@#It is feasible to develop a risk prediction model for new-onset CVD of breast cancer based on regional medical data in China. When not considering survival time, the XGBoost model and the Logistic regression model both showed better performance; Fine & Gray model showed better performance in consideration of survival time.

A descriptive analysis of hyperlipidemia in adult twins in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To describe the distribution characteristics of hyperlipidemia in adult twins in the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR) and explore the effect of genetic and environmental factors on hyperlipidemia. Methods: Twins recruited from the CNTR in 11 project areas across China were included in the study. A total of 69 130 (34 565 pairs) of adult twins with complete information on hyperlipidemia were selected for analysis. The random effect model was used to characterize the population and regional distribution of hyperlipidemia among twins. The concordance rates of hyperlipidemia were calculated in monozygotic twins (MZ) and dizygotic twins (DZ), respectively, to estimate the heritability. Results: The age of all participants was (34.2±12.4) years. This study's prevalence of hyperlipidemia was 1.3% (895/69 130). Twin pairs who were men, older, living in urban areas, married,had junior college degree or above, overweight, obese, insufficient physical activity, current smokers, ex-smokers, current drinkers, and ex-drinkers had a higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia (P<0.05). In within-pair analysis, the concordance rate of hyperlipidemia was 29.1% (118/405) in MZ and 18.1% (57/315) in DZ, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Stratified by gender, age, and region, the concordance rate of hyperlipidemia in MZ was still higher than that in DZ. Further, in within-same-sex twin pair analyses, the heritability of hyperlipidemia was 13.04% (95%CI: 2.61%-23.47%) in the northern group and 18.59% (95%CI: 4.43%-32.74%) in the female group, respectively. Conclusions: Adult twins were included in this study and were found to have a lower prevalence of hyperlipidemia than in the general population study, with population and regional differences. Genetic factors influence hyperlipidemia, but the genetic effect may vary with gender and area.

A descriptive analysis on hypertension in adult twins in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To describe the distribution characteristics of hypertension among adult twins in the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR) and to provide clues for exploring the role of genetic and environmental factors on hypertension. Methods: A total of 69 220 (34 610 pairs) of twins aged 18 and above with hypertension information were selected from CNTR registered from 2010 to 2018. Random effect models were used to describe the population and regional distribution of hypertension in twins. To estimate the heritability, the concordance rates of hypertension were calculated and compared between monozygotic twins (MZ) and dizygotic twins (DZ). Results: The age of all participants was (34.1±12.4) years. The overall self-reported prevalence of hypertension was 3.8%(2 610/69 220). Twin pairs who were older, living in urban areas, married, overweight or obese, current smokers or ex-smokers, and current drinkers or abstainers had a higher self-reported prevalence of hypertension (P<0.05). Analysis within the same-sex twin pairs found that the concordance rate of hypertension was 43.2% in MZ and 27.0% in DZ, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). The heritability of hypertension was 22.1% (95%CI: 16.3%- 28.0%). Stratified by gender, age, and region, the concordance rate of hypertension in MZ was still higher than that in DZ. The heritability of hypertension was higher in female participants. Conclusions: There were differences in the distribution of hypertension among twins with different demographic and regional characteristics. It is indicated that genetic factors play a crucial role in hypertension in different genders, ages, and regions, while the magnitude of genetic effects may vary.

Strengthening the Reporting of Pharmacogenetic Studies (STROPS) guideline / 中华流行病学杂志

Pharmacogenetic studies are designed to investigate the associations between genetic variation and treatment response for a particular drug in terms of both efficacy and adverse events and have high sample size requirements. To improve the quality of pharmacogenetic studies and facilitate the Meta-analyses to investigate statistically significant associations, Strengthening the Reporting of Pharmacogenetic Studies (STROPS) guideline was developed in 2020 based on the Strengthening the Reporting of Genetic Association Studies (STREGA) statement. The objective of this article is to present a brief introduction to the STROPS guideline and an interpretation of the key points in some items with examples for the better understanding and application.

Gene-lifestyle interaction on coronary heart disease in adult twins of China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To explore the gene-lifestyle interaction on coronary heart disease (CHD) in adult twins of China. Methods: Participants were selected from twin pairs registered in the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR). Univariate interaction model was used to estimate the interaction, via exploring the moderation effect of lifestyle on the genetic variance of CHD. Results: A total of 20 477 same-sex twin pairs aged ≥25 years were recruited, including 395 CHD cases, and 66 twin pairs both had CHD. After adjustment for age and sex, no moderation effects of lifestyles, including current smoking, current drinking, physical activity, intake of vegetable and fruit, on the genetic variance of CHD were found (P>0.05), suggesting no significant interactions. Conclusion: There was no evidence suggesting statistically significant gene-lifestyle interaction on CHD in adult twins of China.

A descriptive analysis on coronary heart disease in adult twins in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To describe the distribution characteristics of coronary heart disease in adult twins recruited from Chinese Twin Registry (CNTR), and provide clues and evidence for the effect of genetic and environmental influences on coronary heart disease. Methods: By using the data of CNTR during 2010-2018, a total of 34 583 twin pairs aged ≥18 years who completed questionnaire survey and had related information were included in the current study to analyze the population and area distribution characteristics of coronary heart disease. Random effect models were used to compare the differences between groups. The concordane rate of coronary heart disease were calculated respectively in monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs and dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs to estimate the heritability. Results: The twin pairs included in this analysis were aged (34.2±12.4) years. The overall prevalence rate of coronary heart disease in twin pairs was 0.7%. Twin pairs who were women, older, obese and lived in northern China had higher prevalence of coronary heart disease (P<0.05). Intra-pair analysis in the same-sex twin pairs found that the concordane rate of coronary heart disease was higher in MZ twin pairs (25.3%) than in DZ twins (7.4%), and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). The overall heritability of coronary heart disease was 19.3% (95%CI: 11.8%-26.8%). Stratified by gender, age and area, the concordane rate was still higher in MZ twin pairs than in DZ pairs. Participants who were women, aged 18-30 years or ≥60 years and lived in northern China had a higher heritability of coronary heart disease. Conclusion: The distribution of coronary heart disease in twin pairs differed in populations and areas. The prevalence of coronary heart disease was affected by genetic factors, but the effect varied with age, gender and area.

A descriptive analysis on type 2 diabetes in twins in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To describe the distribution characteristics of type 2 diabetes in twins in Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR), provide clues and evidence for revealing the influence of genetic and environmental factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods: Of all twins registered in the CNTR during 2010-2018, a total 18 855 twin pairs aged ≥30 years with complete registration information were included in the analysis. The random effect model was used to describe the population and area distribution characteristics and concordance of type 2 diabetes in twin pairs. Results: The mean age of the subjects was (42.8±10.2) years, the study subjects included 10 339 monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs and 8 516 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs. The self-reported prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes was 2.2% in total population and there was no sighificant difference between MZ and DZ. Intra-twin pairs analysis showed that the concordance rate of type 2 diabetes was 38.2% in MZ twin pairs, and 16.0% in DZ twin pairs, the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). The concordance rate of type 2 diabetes in MZ twin parts was higher than that in DZ twin pairs in both men and women, in different age groups and in different areas (P<0.05). Further stratified analysis showed that in northern China, only MZ twin pairs less than 60 years old were found to have a higher concordance rate of type 2 diabetes compared with DZ twin pairs (P<0.05). In southern China, the co-prevalence rate in male MZ twin pairs aged ≥60 years was still higher than that in DZ twin pairs (P<0.05). Conclusion: The twin pairs in this study had a lower self-reported prevalence of type 2 diabetes than the general population. The study results suggested that genetic factors play a role in type 2 diabetes prevalence in both men and women, in different age groups and in different areas, however, the effect might vary.

Methodology progress and challenges on assessing the appropriateness of real-world data / 中华流行病学杂志

From the perspective of data users, ensuring the relevance and reliability of big data in healthcare and medicine via assessments on data appropriateness is a prerequisite for generating high-quality real-world evidence, which could guarantee good representativeness and generalizability of real-world studies. This review summarized the quality dimensions, definitions, evaluation indexes and calculating methods of assessment on the appropriateness of real-world data (RWD) according to guidance from different countries and international organizations, as well as exploring the opportunities and challenges for better assessing RWD appropriateness.

How to report adaptive design randomized trials-A interpretation of international reporting guideline ACE / 中华流行病学杂志

Concerns has been raised in improving the quality of adaptive design randomized trials reports. Based on the CONSORT 2010 (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials), The Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) has developed items and reporting specifications for adaptive design trials. This paper presents a brief explanation of the extension and new items of ACE and introduces the applications of ACE checklist with examples.

Introduction of landmarking approach and its application in dynamic prediction / 中华流行病学杂志

Conventional prediction model, as a static prediction model, can be only used to predict the probability of the occurrence of an event during the observation period using the information available at baseline survey. However, based on current clinical demands, dynamic prediction, which obtains prediction probabilities for both baseline survey and later time points given the history of the events and covariates up to that time, is gaining a growing attention. As a dynamic prediction model, the landmarking approach is simple, easy to use, computationally efficient and has a comparable performance of joint modeling, which makes it to be widely used in recent researches. Because of its limited application in China, this paper makes a brief introduction of its ideas and basic application to further promote its applications in clinical dynamic prediction.

Utilizing social media data in post-market safety surveillance / 北京大学学报(医学版)

Post-marketing surveillance is the principal means to ensure drug use safety. The spontaneous report is the essential method of post-marketing surveillance for drug safety. Often, most spontaneous reports come from medical staff and sometimes come from patients who use the drug. The posts published by individuals on social media platforms that contain drugs and related adverse reaction content have gradually been seen as a new data source similar to spontaneous reports from drug users in recent years. Those user-generated posts potentially provide researchers and regulators with new opportunities to conduct post-marketing surveillance for drug safety from patients' perspectives mostly rather than medical professionals and can afford the possibility theoretically to discover drug-related safety issues earlier than traditional methods. Social media data as a new data source for safety signal detection and signal reinforcement have the unique advantages, such as population coverage, type of drugs, type of adverse reactions, data timeliness and quantity. Most of the social media data used in post-marketing surveillance research for drug safety are still text data in English, and even multiple languages are used by different people worldwide on several social media platforms. Unfortunately, there is still a controversy in the academic circles whether social media data can be used as reliable data sources for routine post-marketing surveillance for drug safety. A couple of obstacles of data, methods and ethics must be overcome before leveraging social media data for post-marketing surveillance. The number of Chinese social media users is large, and the social media data in the Chinese language is rapidly snowballing, which can be employed as the potential data source for post-marketing surveillance for drug safety. However, due to the Chinese language's specific characteristics, the text's diversity is different from the English text, and there is not enough accepted corpus in medical scenarios. Besides, the lack of domestic laws and regulations on privacy and security protection of social media data poses more challenges for applying Chinese social media data for post-market surveillance. The significance of social media data to post-marketing surveillance for drug safety is undoubtedly significant. It will be an essential development direction for future research to overcome the challenges of using social media data by developing new technologies and establishing new mechanisms.

Calculation of the prevalence of progressive muscular atrophy among adults in China based on urban medical insurance data from 15 provinces / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the characteristics of patients with progressive muscular atrophy (PMA) and calculate the prevalence of PMA in China in 2016.@*METHODS@#A retrospective analysis based on China's urban employee basic medical insurance data and the urban residence basic medical insu-rance data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016 was carried out. Children under 18 years old were excluded. Patients with progressive muscular atrophy were identified by disease names and codes. Subgroup analyses by gender, region and age were carried out to calculate the gender-specific, region-specific and age-specific prevalences. Age-adjusted national prevalence was estimated based on 2010 Chinese census data. Sensitivity analyses were done by only considering the observed cases and by excluding the top 10% provinces regarding the missing rate of diagnostic information, respectively.@*RESULTS@#A total of 996.09 million person-years were included in this study, with 518.41 million person-years in males and 477.67 million person-years in females. The age and gender distribution of the study population was similar to that of the 2010 Chinese census data, therefore the study population was nationally representative. The prevalence of PMA in China in 2016 was 0.28 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.24-0.33), with 0.21 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.16-0.26) and 0.35 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.28-0.42) for females and males, respectively. Regional disparity existed in the Chinese PMA prevalence, with the lowest prevalence in Southwest region (0.11 per 100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 0.07-0.15) and the highest prevalence in Northwest region (3.47 per 100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 0.80-7.99). Age trend in the PMA prevalence was not obvious, but the prevalence among those aged 70 years and older was relatively higher. The age-adjusted prevalence based on 2010 Chinese census data was 0.29 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.27-0.31). The national prevalences calculated by only considering the observed cases and by excluding the top 10% provinces regar-ding the missing rate of diagnostic information were 0.17 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.14-0.20) and 0.24 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.20-0.28), respectively.@*CONCLUSION@#This study is to calculate the prevalence of PMA among adults in urban China, which can provide basic statistics for the enactment of PMA related medical policies, and clues for the studies on the mechanisms of PMA.

Research progress on chemical compounds and pharmacological effects of Caesalpinia / 中国中药杂志

Consult literature, the chemical composition of the type of system Caesalpinia plants were summarized and discussed in detail its pharmacological effects. The genus contains major chemical components of high isoflavones, chalcones and diterpenoids, pharmacological effects inhibit melanin production, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antibacterial, immune regulation, and further research in this genus offer reference.

Relationship between the clustering of risk factors and the prevalence of hypertension in the community residents living in Shanghai / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To study the association between the clustering manifestation of factors as overweight and central obesity, family heredity, immoderate alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking, hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia and the prevalence of hypertension.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Data was from a program related to the comprehensive prevention and control strategies on cardiac-cerebral vascular disease carried out in the communities of Shanghai, to describe the relationship between the clustering of risk factors and hypertension. This program included 15 158 people with complete data at the age of 35 - 74, from 2008 - 2011. Both single factor and multi-factor analysis were used and longitudinal study was performed to further explore the causal relationship.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The overall prevalence of hypertension at the baseline survey was 41.9%. The associated ORs (age-adjusted) of hypertension parallelly increased with the number of risk factors under clustering. The associated OR of the males with 1, 2, 3, 4 as well as 5 and above risk factors were 3.157 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.152 - 4.630], 6.428 (95%CI: 4.435 - 9.319), 11.797 (95%CI: 8.135 - 17.105), 19.723 (95%CI: 13.414 - 29.000), 33.051 (95%CI: 21.449 - 50.930) respectively. In females with 1, 2, 3 as well as 4 risk factors, the associated ORs were 2.917 (95%CI: 2.374 - 3.585), 6.499 (95%CI: 5.307 - 7.959), 15.717 (95%CI: 12.609 - 19.591) and 31.719 (95%CI: 21.744 - 46.270), respectively. For longitudinal study, the 2-year incidence of hypertension in males and females were 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. Compared to those people without risk factors, the incidence was higher in the people with a larger number of clustering. When the clustering number reaching 2 or 3 in females, the relative risk (RR) were 2.111 (95%CI: 1.024 - 4.350) and 3.000 (95%CI: 1.287 - 6.995) respectively, with statistically significant difference.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The risk of hypertension parallelly increased with the clustering number of relevant risk factors. Comprehensive prevention and control on related risk factors was required.</p>

Setting of logos on tobacco control information at outlets for retails and restaurants in 12 cities of China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the setting of logos on tobacco control information at outlets for retails and restaurants in 12 selected cities of China.Methods For all the shops for retail of tobacco,alcohol,food and restaurants under survey in 333 blocks of 12 cities (Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Qingdao,Hangzhou,Shaoxing,Suzhou,Nantong,Zhenjiang,Chengdu,Xining and Harbin),setting and contents of logos on tobacco control information,inside and outside them were examined.Results 45 700 objectives were included in the study.Among all types of retail shops,the identification rate of tobacco control information at the entrance and inside were 3.6％ and 4.4％,with an overall identification rate as 7.0％.The overall rate at the entrance of all the restaurants was 4.6％ which was larger than the ones at the retail shops.Our result showed that there were differences between cities and types of establishments and higher rates seen in the larger ones.Of all the places that having had placement of information on tobacco control,only 18.5％ of them had put them both inside and outside.Slogans or images on "No Smoking" were the main forms of information but less than 10％ of them would show signs as ‘exclusive non-smoking'.Conclusion Data from our survey showed that the identification rate of tobacco control information was at a low level in 12 cities,and differences were seen between cities,size of establishment,that called for improvement of the existing tobacco control policies in China.

Study on knowledge,attitudes and use of the pre-packaged food nutrition labeling in Hangzhou supermarket consumers in 2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To study the prevalence rates of knowledge,attitudes and use of the nutrition labeling and related influential factors in Hangzhou supermarket consumers.Methods Using a self-developed survey questionnaire,randomly selected customers were conducted a face-toface interview program in a large supermarket of Hangzhou city.Results 586 people were interviewed,including 202 males and 384 females,with the mean age as 41.6±17.23 years.The Facts Labels'were as follows:dietary fiber(71.84%),fat(70.99%),calcium(60.75%),salt (58.36%),energy(50.85%)and sugar(39.42%).The support rates of the three attitudes indicators were"support marking the Nutrition Facts Label"(90.44%)."support marking the nutrition claims"(87.03%)and"want to know more relative knowledge"(77.13%).There were 58.36% and 80.03%first-time buyers who would read the Nutrition Facts Food Labels and the Nutrition Claims.Through logistic model analysis,male,youth,low-educated people were found to be the risk factors related to the nutrition label reading behavior.Conclusion The capacity of the reading,understanding and correct application of nutrition labeling among consumers was not satisfactory.Improvement on the readability and the authority of nutrition labeling and the development of the national nutrition knowledge and health education programs were in urgent needs.